I could think of no better reason to revive this blog after nearly 3 years than by posting some much anticipated Hardrock odds for next week's lottery. Maybe I'll follow this post with a little write-up on where I have been hiding for 3 years, but you might need to grab a bag of popcorn before reading that story.
So with a record number of applicants and the continued format of 3 selection pools (Never, Veterans, and Else), here is the breakdown.
Never Category (never started a Hardrock)
45 spots
2246 applicants
17,052 tickets (average 7.6 tickets per applicant)
Lowest number of tickets: 1
Highest number of tickets: 512
1 ticket = 0.27% chance of getting selected to Hardrock
2 tickets = 0.53%
4 tickets = 1.1%
8 tickets = 2.1%
16 tickets = 4.2%
32 tickets = 8.2%
64 tickets = 15.7%
128 tickets = 29.0%
256 tickets = 49.7%
512 tickets = 75.0%
Else Category (started Hardrock but have less than 5 finishes, or a former Veteran dropped to Else)
65 spots (2 spots already taken by last year's top male and female)
228 applicants
897 tickets (average 3.9 tickets per applicant)
Lowest number of tickets: 1
Highest number of tickets: 20
1 ticket = 8.2%
2 tickets = 15.7%
3 tickets = 22.6%
4 tickets = 28.9%
5 tickets = 34.7%
6 tickets = 40.1%
7 tickets = 45.0%
8 tickets = 49.6%
9 tickets = 53.7%
10 tickets = 57.5%
20 tickets = 82.2% (Randy, it's time for you to get back in the Vet category where you belong!)
Veteran Category (5 or more Hardrock finishes)
33 spots
38 applicants
369 tickets (average 9.7 tickets per applicant)
Lowest number of tickets: 5
Highest number of tickets: 27
5 tickets = 64.0%
6 tickets = 70.8%
7 tickets = 76.4%
8 tickets = 80.9%
9 tickets = 84.6%
10 tickets = 87.6%
15 tickets = 95.9%
20 tickets = 98.8%
27 tickets = 99.8%
Note: These percentages are based on the preliminary ticket counts just released the other day, but updated ticket counts should not significantly change these odds. Also, I am not accounting for any additional entrants coming off the wait list like I have in the past. The wait list has moved less and less each year, so no guarantees there. My amateur statistical methods are summarized here.
Good luck everyone! Lottery to be held on December 1.