87

87 summits of my backyard peak this year.  A far cry from my 164 last year and not even close to Clarkie who was near 200 this year.  At least we will be tied starting tomorrow.  I always like the vertical I get when I am chasing summits, but there are just too many great (and lesser-travelled) trails out here that frequently steer me away from the Horsetooth Rock.

These last few months of 2014 have been filled with some great Fall running from the Wasatch Front in Utah to the Appalachian Trail in Maine, and of course the Rocky Mountains of Colorado.  Mild weather and snow-free trails had been the norm around here, at least until the last week.

2015 will potentially have me running three of the most rugged and remote mountain ultras in Colorado: Hardrock 100,  Never Summer 100K, and the Beetle Kill 200K (all within a 5-week period).  Should be fun!

(Update: Unfortunately, Beetle Kill 200K is not happening this year, so I'll be doing the Ouray 100 instead.)

Some highlights from the last few months:

 

The Hardrock Wait List (Do I train for this thing or not?)

Now that the suspense of the Hardrock lottery is over, let the suspense of the Hardrock wait list begin.  Here is some info that may be of interest to many of you (my fellow wait-listers) who are wondering if it's time to start training for Hardrock or not.

Last year's Veteran category:
35 spots

I didn't find the number of wait-listers for last year (I think it was around 10), but I do know that everyone on the Veteran wait list ended up getting offered a spot in the 2014 Hardrock.  There has been some concern that 20-time Hardrock finisher Kirk Apt won't be able to run in 2015, but at #6 on the wait list, I'm pretty sure he will get his shot at kissing the rock a 21st time.

Last year's Never category:
35 spots

This wait list went 13 deep last year.  Now there are 47 "Never" spots and, therefore, I expect the wait list will go a little deeper.  I personally hope it goes at least 19 deep.

Last year's Else category:
70 spots

The final spot in Hardrock 2014 was given to #16 on the "Else" wait list just hours before the start.  Let's just say that my Hardrock training has already begun and I will be in Silverton this July.  My wait list spot?  Number 16.

 

Hardrock 2015 Odds

 

It is that time of year again.  Hardrock lottery on Saturday!  The revised lottery system is now in its third year and the good news for those that have never run Hardrock, there are an extra 12 spots for you this year!  The bad news is that the you're still gonna need some very good luck to get your name drawn.

 

For the math geeks, the statistical method is summarized here.  So here is the breakdown for 2015.

 

The "Never Done Hardrock" category:

1146 applicants

4105 tickets

47 spots (plus I assume an extra 5 get in off wait list)

 

1 ticket: 1.3% chance of getting in

2 tickets: 2.6%

4 tickets: 5.1%

8 tickets: 9.9%

16 tickets: 18.8%

32 tickets: 34.1%

64 tickets: 56.7%

128 tickets: 81.5%

 

 

The "Veteran" category (At least 5 Hardrock finishes):

42 applicants

375 tickets

34 spots plus 5 off wait list (last year's winner Darcy Piceu already has a spot)

 

5 tickets (fewest held by a Veteran): 76.3%

23 tickets (most held by a Veteran): 99.95%

 

 

The "Everyone else" category:

178 applicants

617 tickets

69 spots plus 10 off wait list (Kilian Jornet already has a spot)

 

1 ticket: 15.8%

2 tickets: 29.1%

3 tickets: 40.3%

4 tickets: 49.8%

5 tickets: 57.8%

6 tickets: 64.5%

7 tickets: 70.2%

8 tickets: 75.0%

9 tickets: 79.0%

 

Good luck!