Thursday, December 1, 2011

Hardrock Odds Updated

I just got my hands on some data courtesy of Hardrock legend Blake Wood.  These were the data I was missing when I approximated the odds of getting into Hardrock a couple of weeks ago (posted here), although it turned out that my assumptions then were not that far off.

As of November 28:
32 automatic entries taken from the capped field of 140
278 applicants with 1 ticket
219 applicants with 2 tickets
73 applicants with 3 tickets
30 applicants with 4 tickets
12 applicants with 5 tickets
14 applicants with 6 tickets

There are 1199 tickets in the hat for the remaining 108 spots.  Hopefully, not too many more applicants came in before today's deadline.  I doubt there will be enough to lower these odds very much.  So using the methods outlined in my earlier post, and assuming 30 get into the race from the wait list, here are your chances:

1 ticket = 12.2% chance of being at the starting line in Silverton on 7/13/2012
2 tickets = 22.9%
3 tickets = 32.3%
4 tickets = 40.6%
5 tickets = 47.9%
6 tickets = 54.2%

Drawing starts this Sunday at 10am MST.


  1. Well, I enjoyed and trusted your math the previous time.
    I also hope my entry got there in time.

    Either way, good luck!

  2. Is your spot "close enough" to be considered "in"?

  3. Top of the wait list-looks like you're going to Silverton next summer! Congratulations!

  4. Yeeeesssssssss!!!!!! Hey Kevin, interested in spending a weekend in the San Juans? I can definitely use you.

    Alex you got some business to take care of in Leadville this year. Let's kick off the 2012 training with a nice little run next weekend.