Hardrock 2013 Odds

I wasn't going to bother this year with the new lottery system, but Blake gave us the data so I couldn't resist.  Besides, it seemed to bring me luck last year when I only had a 23% chance of getting in.

The math is provided in last year's post here.  This year I will conservatively assume that only 5 get in the race off from the first-timers' and veterans' wait lists, and only 10 off the "everyone else" wait list.

First-timers:
1801 tickets, 619 applicants, 35 spots (plus 5 off wait list)

1 ticket = 2.3% chance of getting into Hardrock
2 tickets = 4.5%
4 tickets = 8.8%
8 tickets = 16.8%
16 tickets = 30.8%
32 tickets = 52.3%
64 tickets = 77.6%


Veterans (5-time finishers):
356 tickets, 44 applicants, 35 spots (plus 5)

5 tickets = 76.7% (fewest tickets held by a vet)
18 tickets = 99.7% (18-time finisher Kirk Apt should be in)


Everyone else (started a Hardrock, but less than 5 finishes):
638 tickets, 191 applicants, 70 spots (plus 10)

1 ticket = 15.0%
2 tickets = 27.7%
3 tickets = 38.6%
4 tickets = 47.8%
5 tickets = 55.7%
6 tickets = 62.4%

Good luck!

Chubby Cheeks 2012

Another great Chubby Cheeks Fat Ass event is in the books, hopefully with everyone back safe and sound before the weather turned ugly late Saturday afternoon.  A perfect day for running and, unlike last year's trudge, snow-free trails.  A huge turnout with Boulder, Denver, Estes Park, plenty of CRUD from the Springs area, and who knows where else along the Front Range and beyond showing up.  Of course, the FCTR represented strong as well.  It's hard to beat a long day on the trails with friends.

Huge thanks to Nick and family for hosting this every year.  Next installment of the Front Range Fat Ass series on January 19th down in Manitou Springs, where the Ponderous Posterier will take on a brand new course.  See you there!

44 miles and 9K of climbing on the day!

Some photos from the 3rd annual El Chubbo Grande:

7am start wave climbing with the rising sun.

Audra Culver Trail

Approaching the Horsetooth Rock summit.

Horsetooth Rock.  First summit of the day.

A nice spot to "chill" on Mill Creek Trail.

Climbing up the Howard Trail.

Arthur's Rock.  Summit #2.

Towers Road.  Always "fun" with 30 plus miles already on the legs.