Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Hardrock 2015 Odds

It is that time of year again.  Hardrock lottery on Saturday!  The revised lottery system is now in its third year and the good news for those that have never run Hardrock, there are an extra 12 spots for you this year!  The bad news is that the you're still gonna need some very good luck to get your name drawn.
For the math geeks, the statistical method is summarized here.  So here is the breakdown for 2015.
The "Never Done Hardrock" category:
1146 applicants
4105 tickets
47 spots (plus I assume an extra 5 get in off wait list)
1 ticket: 1.3% chance of getting in
2 tickets: 2.6%
4 tickets: 5.1%
8 tickets: 9.9%
16 tickets: 18.8%
32 tickets: 34.1%
64 tickets: 56.7%
128 tickets: 81.5%
The "Veteran" category (At least 5 Hardrock finishes):
42 applicants
375 tickets
34 spots plus 5 off wait list (last year's winner Darcy Piceu already has a spot)
5 tickets (fewest held by a Veteran): 76.3%
23 tickets (most held by a Veteran): 99.95%
The "Everyone else" category:
178 applicants
617 tickets
69 spots plus 10 off wait list (Kilian Jornet already has a spot)
1 ticket: 15.8%
2 tickets: 29.1%
3 tickets: 40.3%
4 tickets: 49.8%
5 tickets: 57.8%
6 tickets: 64.5%
7 tickets: 70.2%
8 tickets: 75.0%
9 tickets: 79.0%
Good luck!


  1. Replies
    1. He has 16 tickets in the "Never" category, so 18.8%

  2. Thanks for the hard numbers Rob. 18.8 %... Ouch! Well, hopefully he is wearing one of his belt buckles today.

  3. Looks like we're both in, though I got Western States too.

    Hope to be able to see you there.

    1. Was glad to see your name drawn for HR! Congrats on Western too! Gonna do both?

      I did some research and the last one in HR off the "else" wait list last year was #16. I sit at #16 this year. I will be in Silverton. Hope to see you there (and hope I am running it with you).

  4. I'm planning to do both, possibly as one trip. Got a lot of challenges on all fronts to make it happen, though.

    See you in Silverton.